Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Are we looking at a new BOTTOM?

The above graph was cut a month back. I don’t know whether we are heading to it. But the charting analysis took decades to develop and then for decades it was tested. Few researchers in US analyzed that the wave lines drawn on chart conjoining the daily market movements, form certain kind of patterns on it. They studied and came out with sure movement which when started would move in that particular. Although save the intra-day movement. Then Japanese with their die-hard attitude and standards of research invented Candle Sticks and indeed indicate sure accurate patterns with their candle light patterns. But I hardly got to learn their patterns.

Then Mr. Elliot came and gave us the Elliot Wave Theory. Seems so fucking brilliant to have a theory in one’s name. Mr. Elliot studied the market and then gave a remarkable movement after a much thought/research had been conducted on these charts.

The above chart is making a movement like Elliot Wave Theory. Is that a big deal to follow the Elliot Wave Theory? But according to the theory, it is headed towards one of its most horrendous phases. The last leg called C is a nightmare for investors/traders. We are now looking or it seems likely that the Sensex may touch 9000 or 8000. That’s more than 40% loss from the current levels of 15000. Its hard to believe but it may be true. A pattern formulated on charts stretched over years is generally correct. In this case, the pattern has been formed over a period of last five years on monthly movements.

I really don’t know whether it will complete the last leg C of Elliot Wave Theory. Particularly during this time, when there are positive news coming from different corners of the globe. Indian economy is working its way up fast, global economy is recovering, Chinese and Obama are not doing anything foolish.

But looking at the theory it should. This month the market under most likely circumstances will close below the level of previous month’s closing and if it continues to do the same next month. Then by year end or beginning of 2010, we are heading towards a new low. Under the theory, it should fall below its previous low i.e. leg C goes lower than leg A.

Bulls may be trying to defeat this theory. Bears may be finding their way in.

Who wins and how is the question which can be decided when the time comes?

In the meantime, everybody will be hoping that Bull trumples the Bear to keep their smiles intact.
May Lord give the strength to Longs over the Shorts.

No comments:

Post a Comment