5 is just a number

P. Chidambaram was waving to the media an open palm during transfers from CBI Headquarters to Court. I thought he was saying, 5 years, the prison  time he expects to be rewarded or perhaps, he will be out of jail in 5 months. Like a good politician, he was talking about the GDP of the economy, which stands at 5%, instead of talking about the case for which he is under investigation. Criminals make for best politicians. Chidambaram is finest and stands tall with our Home Minister.

Is GDP number a big deal?? It is to the economists, it is to our PM as well. He changed the role play of numbers and figures in GDP calculation to show a strong growing economy from 2014 to 2019. But again does GDP matter, when people are happy and so hopeful that our PM will change the fortune and the future of our great nation, even though they say, his efforts in last 5 years have borne little fruit. All of us should stand with the ideas of our honest PM.

But 5% or $ 5 trillion?? $ 5 trillion is the figure, which our PM has given to the people of India as they gave him huge numbers in terms of votes in May 2019. The PM gave himself the target and support of the people, to help India become $5 trillion economy in next 5 years, before his next term. Modiji is always thinking ahead in terms of elections. And doubling it again by 2030 to $10 trillion economy.

When did we have a PM, who challenges himself in the open for the exact number on the size, never before Mr. Modi. Since the Govt. has numbers, so Govt. can push reforms and build strong policy for enabling growth in the economy, for bringing more investment in the economy. At time, I wonder, do we Indians actually deserve such a hard working PM for elections?

Fortunately or unfortunately, instead of GDP rate going up, it is going down. But understanding from where $ 5 trillion figure came, we will know where we are headed. India’s economy in terms of size is $2.7 trillion in March 2019. To get to $5 trillion, even if we grow at 8% annually every year, it will take 8 years to reach that number.

If India grows at 10%, year on year, then also, it will take around 6 years to reach the figure of 5 (trillion in dollars). No economy in the world has ever grown in double digits. China may have pulled off that spoof but then the world wonders about the integrity of their data. I guess Modiji knows, we cannot achieve $ 5 trillion in 5 years, even if whatever level of creativity is fed into statistical data.

But I believe we are heading for double digit growth in FY 2021, for the first time in the history of this country. Though the similar formula will be replicated over next years will remain a challenge. First the Govt. is working on the data, to make the base look of FY 2020 smaller, paving the way for double digit growth in FY 2021.

The PM understands there is some good news, he has to feed people so that they keep voting for him. There could be some landmarks in the mean time, like RCEP, though this failed, but there can be other initiatives from the Govt. to pull India out of its rabbit hole but it is easier said than done. Delivering GDP growth of closer to 10% as predicted by IMF numbers will be the test, on which we are already floundering to match the dismal growth rate of under 7% averaged for last five years. Mind you, this 7% is also worked out by reworking the statistical data over and over again with different permutations and combinations, which remains confidential.

The larger point comes to the fore, today in first week of November 2019, when the PM is hard selling India to Thailand to invest in India; with the assumption, India is the best place to invest in the world. Even if we achieve GDP size of $5 trillion by 2024, when the people want to protest for clean air in the national capital region of India, they cannot go out to protest in the open. Instead they are hunched at their homes and tweeting about the poor air quality; Philips is laughing its way to the bank as they are selling air purifiers in between season of coolers and heaters.

There have been floods in the city of Chennai or the latest one in Bihar, when the state capital is filled with water that people are not safe, even on first floor of their houses and the Deputy CM had to be evacuated by the Disaster Agency. Water crisis for daily needs is an issue, from which such a large population of India is grappling.

Maybe the PM believes the full effect of demonetization and GST will reap its benefits to the GDP to help us achieve $5 trillion GDP. Apparently, we are yet to hear a road map for becoming $5 trillion economy from any member of the Govt. Our dearest FM, Nirmala Tai, smokes fire when its comes to questions related to the economy. Analysts and Reporters leave the FM with the final question of how Congress is skeptical about Govt.’s words and target? She justifies her position to her party with only fire to this question. At times, I feel, FM is always irritated, is it for the Press Conferences or is that her basic nature in the Finance Ministry meetings as well; as if she hates all human beings.

Govt. did make genuine effort to reach to that point to ensure we are closer to number 5 but instead of keeping $5 trillion in sight, they hugged the 5% GDP growth rate, which is very close to half to IMF Projections of 9.8% average growth in economy for next 5 years. PM will be shouting at his campaigns with his punja (open hand display of 5), we promised 5, we delivered 5.

The poor people of India wouldn’t know, Modiji promised us $5 trillion (which would have come at 10%), instead he gave us 5%. Modiji promises and he delivers in his speeches. The honest PM, who delivers with honesty and his hard work for the elections.