GST Rollback

Much has been said about One Nation, One Tax; which was launched with much fanfare as is the case with our marketing savvy PM on 1 July, 2017. Though GST functions through a complex structure for it was in making for more than a decade. Not to mention, the speed with which Govt. implemented GST, without proper rules, guidance or education about the system, without bringing proper awareness about how to comply with the law.

GST till date has witnessed so many modifications (read Notifications). GST for its structure and size, can be termed Constitution of Indirect Tax. Yet it has surpassed the modifications of Constitution perhaps in 70 years than in 70 months; in fact GST is yet to live half its life of 70 months.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gst-council-begins-review-of-rates-items-to-raise-revenue/articleshow/72356691.cms

We remember, Late Arun Jaitley beaming to the reporters that we are reducing GST rates on different items as the GST collection numbers have been good. Wasn’t that the reason why GST was introduced that there will be revision or confusion of rates? Now the role reversal is happening, read the above news item.

We are not talking about 180 degree turn the GST has taken for some industries. Why couldn’t Govt. take help of more experts, or perhaps taken more time to understand, how people can bypass the provisions of GST to evade taxes and built a better system to begin with. I mean, Modi had been given clean sheet to work on building a new system as against his Govt. complains that they are still cleaning the mess of 70 years of Congress. Here they got a chance to build a system from scratch and they incorporated all the blunders of Congress of 70 years as their legacy in GST network.

The Govt. official mentions, Govt. is robbed of its revenue. I means, who is robbing whom? Can a Govt. be robbed by its people, the same people who elected the Govt., gave them the power to make laws and rules for them. The word “ROBBED” by Govt. official, signifies the problem that exists in the fundamentals of GST from the time, it was put into practice or perhaps into  planning. Mind you Sir, Govt. is robbing people always, globally in every democracy and irrespective of the colour of the political party.

None of the businesses put into 18% and 28% tax slab of GST, earn as much as money for themselves as the money, they are collecting as taxes from the Govt. It applies in the case of businesses in 5% category as well. Two and a half years, petrol and diesel are still not part of the GST and I guess there is no plan. Taxes on petrol and diesel is the only reason, perhaps why we are able to clock 4.6% GDP, otherwise it may be zero. Not to mention, the State exchequers are in bigger mess and petrol/diesel taxes is the only way, a lot of States are surviving, otherwise they may file bankruptcy.

The issues for which States and Central Govt. are wrangling in GST is another matter, about which the common man is not even aware of. Refunds to exporters is known in India, a lot of exporters have closed shop due to delays from the Central Govt. to get refund on their taxes. Exporters are eligible for 100% credit of GST on proper documentation after confirmation of legitimate exports.

At the time of implementation in 2017, Malaysia had rolled back GST completely out of the system and the question arose, why is India implementing it? India as a country for its size, needs GST. I mean, for Govt.’s defence, Govt. has been quick and always up on its feet to make the changes in the GST. But the changes are so so frequent, at times changes are complete landscape shift from what was planned with the law. 180 degree rotations signifies that the Govt. is not even clear about the objective and the loop holes, which exist ensure, it can never be complied, it will never be complied; neither by people, nor by Govt. How many training sessions, Govt. has to undertake to teach their own officers.

Will rollback of GST take place? I for myself believe certainly, there are no two ways about it. When is the question? While introducing the GST and the blunderous implementation, Govt. had given the expiry date of GST. At the time of implementation, Central Govt. had declared that they will be compensating the States for their loss in revenue for first 5 years.

Now Modiji in his second term as PM has immediately extended the compensation to States from 5 to 8 years, from 2022 to 2025. 2025 is the year, when GST will be rollbacked as the States are already fed up with the delay of compensation from the Central Govt. Moreover 29 States in India, 2900 flip-flops in 29 months of GST rules and compliance. States would want to go to the system, in which they are good at milking the particular industries, the State is able to house.

The decision to push the compensation date to 2025, is to clearly avoid the 2024 election by which Mr Modi will claim his legacy of 10 years as PM as the finest PM of India, at least in his eyes and GST will still be the hallmark for 2024 elections fight. Though most likely, 2024 elections will be for paving the way for Amit Bhai Shah to become next Prime Minister. Of course, it’s a long shot, depending on the optics of 2024 and results of data set at which BJP as party masters the art to analyze such data for elections.

I wonder sometimes, had BJP as political party could gauge its decisions and the form of its implementation like they are able to gauge wind of elections and ensure that the wind blows in their direction is in itself a phenomena, we would have already been 10 steps ahead of PM’s speeches. Rollback of GST would tell us, Modiji was always putting the cart before the horse and by the end of it, much hope of building of New India will be lost.

Though it is still good 5 years before GST rollback, much drama will be played in the downturn on the back of GST. Let’s hope in the meantime, the Govt. ensures laws are made better and implemented better for the hope, that they are squandering away.

5 is just a number

P. Chidambaram was waving to the media an open palm during transfers from CBI Headquarters to Court. I thought he was saying, 5 years, the prison  time he expects to be rewarded or perhaps, he will be out of jail in 5 months. Like a good politician, he was talking about the GDP of the economy, which stands at 5%, instead of talking about the case for which he is under investigation. Criminals make for best politicians. Chidambaram is finest and stands tall with our Home Minister.

Is GDP number a big deal?? It is to the economists, it is to our PM as well. He changed the role play of numbers and figures in GDP calculation to show a strong growing economy from 2014 to 2019. But again does GDP matter, when people are happy and so hopeful that our PM will change the fortune and the future of our great nation, even though they say, his efforts in last 5 years have borne little fruit. All of us should stand with the ideas of our honest PM.

But 5% or $ 5 trillion?? $ 5 trillion is the figure, which our PM has given to the people of India as they gave him huge numbers in terms of votes in May 2019. The PM gave himself the target and support of the people, to help India become $5 trillion economy in next 5 years, before his next term. Modiji is always thinking ahead in terms of elections. And doubling it again by 2030 to $10 trillion economy.

When did we have a PM, who challenges himself in the open for the exact number on the size, never before Mr. Modi. Since the Govt. has numbers, so Govt. can push reforms and build strong policy for enabling growth in the economy, for bringing more investment in the economy. At time, I wonder, do we Indians actually deserve such a hard working PM for elections?

Fortunately or unfortunately, instead of GDP rate going up, it is going down. But understanding from where $ 5 trillion figure came, we will know where we are headed. India’s economy in terms of size is $2.7 trillion in March 2019. To get to $5 trillion, even if we grow at 8% annually every year, it will take 8 years to reach that number.

If India grows at 10%, year on year, then also, it will take around 6 years to reach the figure of 5 (trillion in dollars). No economy in the world has ever grown in double digits. China may have pulled off that spoof but then the world wonders about the integrity of their data. I guess Modiji knows, we cannot achieve $ 5 trillion in 5 years, even if whatever level of creativity is fed into statistical data.

But I believe we are heading for double digit growth in FY 2021, for the first time in the history of this country. Though the similar formula will be replicated over next years will remain a challenge. First the Govt. is working on the data, to make the base look of FY 2020 smaller, paving the way for double digit growth in FY 2021.

The PM understands there is some good news, he has to feed people so that they keep voting for him. There could be some landmarks in the mean time, like RCEP, though this failed, but there can be other initiatives from the Govt. to pull India out of its rabbit hole but it is easier said than done. Delivering GDP growth of closer to 10% as predicted by IMF numbers will be the test, on which we are already floundering to match the dismal growth rate of under 7% averaged for last five years. Mind you, this 7% is also worked out by reworking the statistical data over and over again with different permutations and combinations, which remains confidential.

The larger point comes to the fore, today in first week of November 2019, when the PM is hard selling India to Thailand to invest in India; with the assumption, India is the best place to invest in the world. Even if we achieve GDP size of $5 trillion by 2024, when the people want to protest for clean air in the national capital region of India, they cannot go out to protest in the open. Instead they are hunched at their homes and tweeting about the poor air quality; Philips is laughing its way to the bank as they are selling air purifiers in between season of coolers and heaters.

There have been floods in the city of Chennai or the latest one in Bihar, when the state capital is filled with water that people are not safe, even on first floor of their houses and the Deputy CM had to be evacuated by the Disaster Agency. Water crisis for daily needs is an issue, from which such a large population of India is grappling.

Maybe the PM believes the full effect of demonetization and GST will reap its benefits to the GDP to help us achieve $5 trillion GDP. Apparently, we are yet to hear a road map for becoming $5 trillion economy from any member of the Govt. Our dearest FM, Nirmala Tai, smokes fire when its comes to questions related to the economy. Analysts and Reporters leave the FM with the final question of how Congress is skeptical about Govt.’s words and target? She justifies her position to her party with only fire to this question. At times, I feel, FM is always irritated, is it for the Press Conferences or is that her basic nature in the Finance Ministry meetings as well; as if she hates all human beings.

Govt. did make genuine effort to reach to that point to ensure we are closer to number 5 but instead of keeping $5 trillion in sight, they hugged the 5% GDP growth rate, which is very close to half to IMF Projections of 9.8% average growth in economy for next 5 years. PM will be shouting at his campaigns with his punja (open hand display of 5), we promised 5, we delivered 5.

The poor people of India wouldn’t know, Modiji promised us $5 trillion (which would have come at 10%), instead he gave us 5%. Modiji promises and he delivers in his speeches. The honest PM, who delivers with honesty and his hard work for the elections.

Abrogation of Article 370

Principally and fundamentally, I believe that India as a nation, needed a new or fresh perspective. One which is world away from Congress thinking or perhaps the party, which is entrapped within the thinking and decisions of Pandit Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The India of today, needs decisions, which are independent from the philosophy of India as it was 70 or even 40 years ago. The current age of digital revolution should be aligned with the modern economies and not to look back at the history for decisions of tomorrow.

PM Modi has a varied different perspective on everything, which is like 180 degree from the Congress thought process. He does not mince words for his actions prove he is the loudest in the class; in which everybody starts murmuring, so that their voices drown out. He is a man in hurry, he is possessed man with mission, to make the better of India.

Article 370 had to be scrapped for the betterment of India, it has been impending since last 25 years. Perhaps Congress should have done it in 1990s, when the valley was on boil, how does it matter who gets roasted in the boil of the broth. Armed with 350 seats in Lok Sabha and almost there in terms of majority in Rajya Sabha, perhaps it was time to put the matter to discussion (I know it is no word in new India) and bring all the concerned parties to tame the line, the way we know PM Modi, makes everybody fall in line, irrespective of the pain.

People or decision makers are said to cringe at his choices, but then I believe PM Modi must be saying to them; Pain is inevitable, suffering is always optional. Let’s not suffer for the betterment and deal with the pain. But the speed with which PM Modi unleashes reforms as if he fears the world or he does not wish to give the time for voice to the detractors.

Bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir and declaration of Kashmir and Ladakh as Union Territories in a single day without following the procedures laid down in the Constitution or masquerading the process in the name of United India, is something way too radical for people to accept. In a functional democracy, the letter of law should be followed and all parties concerned should be consulted and made to understand the point of view. Or the PM himself does not believe in democratic process. The legal process to be followed or bypassed for enforcing the decision is for the legal pundits to ponder. But if PM does not believe in procedures, how does he think people will follow his disfigured procedures.

There are so many Indians, who are lauding PM Modi on Twitter, WhatsApp for his decision but then the people who will be heart of this decision are locked up in their houses, with no medium to voice or express their happiness. If bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir is so amazing as an idea to be implemented, I am pretty sure, the PM would have found a way to show people of Jammu & Kashmir, its the benefits, people who are the centre of it. I believe in PM Modi’s conviction.

PM knows the best as most Indians believe, why are people of Jammu & Kashmir not allowed to celebrate on the streets or hell at least, they should be allowed to celebrate on social media at least. Home Minister gave a long speech, how it benefits only the people of Jammu & Kashmir in his address in the Parliament. I am sure they would have or could have sent that message to every resident of Jammu & Kashmir beforehand.

History is witness in every corner in the world, an Army can never resolve the conflict. Kejriwal is fighting for the right of full Statehood of Delhi but then he is jostling with the Central Govt. over discretionary power on Delhi Police and there is no or zero involvement of Army from either side (State Govt. has no power on Army). But Central Govt. is not resorting to deployment of Army to keep Kejriwal’s voice down. Good or bad, right or wrong; Central Govt. is using the tools to control Kejriwal, which are allowed in a functional democracy.

Abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of the State and declaration of the State as Union Territory are three different topics. Article 370 is the smoke that the Govt. is using to leverage the agenda of bifurcation and Union Territory to ensure that there will never be peace in Jammu & Kashmir.

Are we witnessing the blunders of Demonetization and GST to be repeated in Jammu & Kashmir with bifurcation and Union Territory order? Where the Govt. is rail roading the idea, which is stuck in their head like a broken tune but then they don’t know what will be repercussions of implementing idea, which is poorly planned and besieged on the people. For we have to witness the bold chest of 56 inches, which can make tough decisions by convoluting the Constitution but then it will be implemented in a manner to ensure it’s a dud from the word GO.

Locking down the Kashmir with thousands of army troops patrolling every street, where a soul cannot be found is the only way for Govt. to implement their idea of bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir to make people of the State inclusive to India and bring peace in the valley.

After all, PM has been selling the idea to the world that terrorism is the biggest threat to the development of India and the nations for its like, who are victims of terror attacks. I agree with PM Modi, terror attack is myopic view. Only cowards take actions under the garb of terror attacks from which they can never achieve anything, it is only to create fear in the mind of people, besides which it cannot achieve anything further.

Home Ministry had issued an Advisory of a possible terror attack. To ensure the safety of the people of the State, 30,000 or 60,000 (or whatever number) troops were deployed in the State and Section 144 imposed on people with total communication shutdown to ensure the safety of the people.

But then the Ministry failed to assess, it’s for Home Minister’s protection for his decision is going to burn down the valley. There is only one way to ironclad the tough decision of the Govt. of State bifurcation and Union Territory declaration is by locking people up in their houses. No country has ever built jails so big to confine its entire population.

Will it be war within or the battles outside as we are used to playing hokey-pokey with Pakistan, can only be known, when the communication system in Jammu & Kashmir is restored? I believe the Govt. will not allow people to come to street without knowing their mind. Article 370 can be digested even if it is pushed down the throat but the larger agenda is the bifurcation of State and making the state, a Union Territory.

The bigger question remains, whether the same procedure will be followed in other States, where the BJP is not able to wrest the power by electoral process. But first, we need to know the temperature in the valley, especially when we are about to enter fall season.