Bye Bye 2015 ....... Happy New Year 2016

2015 was the litmus test year of the Modi Govt and Modi style of politics and functioning. Mr Modi promised moon to the people while contesting elections in 2014. In reality, we knew a lot of it is marketing plank or promises before elections. It was to Mr Modi’s that he could sell it and people bought it as well. Achhe din (Better Days) are still a distant dream. But Mr Modi fired his power behind every idea he sold to the people. Whether those ideas culminate into something, only time will tell, we still have three and half years.

DBT (Direct Benefit Transfer) seems to be working but long time to make it overall success. When it comes to the politics, Congress showed the same chip to BJP and BJP had performed in the opposition. But a good part came out of it, Mr Modi followed his words of sabka saath, sabka vikas by talking to opposition leaders to allow the House to function. Let’s see how Congress tries to scuttle next time and whether anything good comes out of it or not. But the House will function this year. Rajya Sabha equations are bound to change a little with BJP gaining more voice in the Upper House.

Aamir commenting on intolerance became a laughing reference for social media and the media alike. The issue of intolerance did take a lot of media coverage and perhaps some fear in the minds of the minorities. Certainly this issue will carry forward in 2016. Congress can do such things and nobody will notice but high pitched speeches of hard working PM does get a drubbing for not anything on sensitive issues.

RSS mouthpiece costed heavily on the BJP fate in Bihar elections. With Lalu 2.0 and Nitish’s third term drubbed BJP in the State elections. PM’s sharp jibe and derogatory remarks on Lalu and Nitish were derogatory to his chair even if apt for the leaders of Bihar. Delhi Assembly became AAP’s headquarters with 67 out of 70 seats won by them. AAP’s fights with the Central Govt. continued through most of the year and will continue through 2016 as well. Elections in five states of 2016, that too bigwigs, like UP, WB and TN and small ones, Kerala and Assam will witness less of Modi, as he is PM, he should be PM and not BJP chief campaign voice.

On international diplomacy, Mr Modi held various public meetings and displayed strength of Indian diaspora in USA (East and West Cost), UK, Canada, Australia and so on. India is definitely gaining respect in those high diplomatic circles. He ended the year with a surprise visit to India’s distant brother and arch enemy, Pakistan and hugging Nawaz Sharif wherein Nawaz Sharif broke the protocol to receive Indian PM at the airport. What happens next in Indo-Pak relations is a deep story which only time will reveal?

The need to build healthier planet, India and Mr Modi made waves in the Paris Climate Summit and India won acclaim from developed world for the progress in the solar space. Developed world reflected on toeing India’s line on solar policy. Whether India brings developed finances for carbon credits or not is a long term play.

Oil, a major pain point of Manmohan Singh Govt. had dropped to $40 making economy a cakewalk for the Modi Govt. India’s largest import bill is for oil. With oil cooling, it was respite for the Govt. forex outflow and Govt. kept hiking taxes on the same which ensured they could meet the budget targets alongwith the development. It will continue to slide or lay low for the coming year.

Onions made everybody cry this year followed by tomatoes for a while and then we had new price index for pulses. A common food’s cheap of rice and dal is suddenly expensive. It will be interesting to watch whether Govt. will try to bring correction. Highly unlikely, these are the new levels and we may see few more points hike in the same.

Yakub Menon was hanged to death and the week before his hanging, like his life was wavering from hope and despair and so was country heavily and deeply through those days. The marauder of Priya Singh, who said, ghusa usme or the only survivor of the rape convicts raised brouhaha and protests because of his early release as juvenile detainee. A change in law was required and has been brought in.

Indian economy is holding put against all the odds and the global turmoil that is happening especially the great commodity crash. The stock markets lost 26% during the year with some of the big heavyweights taking the lead. Economy may perform with some of the major projects undertaken by the Govt. which will keep it floating. The markets are expected to recover due to great fall but with the US crisis looming, it is hoping against hope but it will hold fort.

Banking crisis which was a mess earlier is now a pile of rubble. In addition of the already deteriorating bank finances and the core sector companies not performing, cement, steel, coal, power, etc aluminium and copper are also joining the league. Hopefully Govt. does the cleaning act quickly which is the requirement of the day.

Technology space will break new barriers as we already record investments in the space with Flipkart, Ola, Amazon and Uber becoming part of everybody’s life and space. More consumer related apps will be successful and function in the market. Plus Google, Microsoft and Facebook will be offering free internet services in rural India through balloons, jets flying in the stratosphere or perhaps a signal from the moon.

And the year ended with the last laugh by Shah Rukh Khan, as the campaign started to boycott his film, Dilwale, due to his intolerant statement, remarks or whatever it was. He made the most horrible movie of his career that even protestors were put to shame.

Are we looking at a new BOTTOM?

The above graph was cut a month back. I don’t know whether we are heading to it. But the charting analysis took decades to develop and then for decades it was tested. Few researchers in US analyzed that the wave lines drawn on chart conjoining the daily market movements, form certain kind of patterns on it. They studied and came out with sure movement which when started would move in that particular. Although save the intra-day movement. Then Japanese with their die-hard attitude and standards of research invented Candle Sticks and indeed indicate sure accurate patterns with their candle light patterns. But I hardly got to learn their patterns.

Then Mr. Elliot came and gave us the Elliot Wave Theory. Seems so fucking brilliant to have a theory in one’s name. Mr. Elliot studied the market and then gave a remarkable movement after a much thought/research had been conducted on these charts.

The above chart is making a movement like Elliot Wave Theory. Is that a big deal to follow the Elliot Wave Theory? But according to the theory, it is headed towards one of its most horrendous phases. The last leg called C is a nightmare for investors/traders. We are now looking or it seems likely that the Sensex may touch 9000 or 8000. That’s more than 40% loss from the current levels of 15000. Its hard to believe but it may be true. A pattern formulated on charts stretched over years is generally correct. In this case, the pattern has been formed over a period of last five years on monthly movements.

I really don’t know whether it will complete the last leg C of Elliot Wave Theory. Particularly during this time, when there are positive news coming from different corners of the globe. Indian economy is working its way up fast, global economy is recovering, Chinese and Obama are not doing anything foolish.

But looking at the theory it should. This month the market under most likely circumstances will close below the level of previous month’s closing and if it continues to do the same next month. Then by year end or beginning of 2010, we are heading towards a new low. Under the theory, it should fall below its previous low i.e. leg C goes lower than leg A.

Bulls may be trying to defeat this theory. Bears may be finding their way in.

Who wins and how is the question which can be decided when the time comes?

In the meantime, everybody will be hoping that Bull trumples the Bear to keep their smiles intact.
May Lord give the strength to Longs over the Shorts.