Vaccine Discrimination Strategy

Every Govt./ Every Kingdom is procuring vaccines for its citizens/population on its own to be administered at the Govt.’s cost as it is pandemic. Like our PM says, once in a century pandemic. Why is it that Govt. of India is dragging its feet on vaccination? Our Govt. always plays hockey with data is known to everybody. But this time, they are playing ping pong with States as if the citizens represented by Centre and State are two different set of individuals. Especially when India is amongst the top 5 worst handlers of the virus in the world. May be it is about Modiji being loyal to his friend, Mr Doland Trump (Not Donald, as that is how our PM likes to call him).

 

On April 18, 2021, when Corona cases had jumped 2.75 Lakh for the day with 1600+ deaths and our PM was lauding the efforts of the public to attend his rally in West Bengal and expressing his pleasure to see the huge turnout of crowds. The States were making clamour for more vaccines as they had to reach out to its respective citizens with answers to problems and not an explanation for failure to deal with the problem. Perhaps some CMs were just posturing to care which the case may not be.

Barely 50 days with the modified rules of the new Vaccination Program, the policy stands scrapped and new policy has replaced with the old one. Will we witness further changes into the Vaccination Policy, especially because Centre plays dumb down with MoHFW focused on Congress rather than vaccines or perhaps that’s the case with the every Minister of Govt.

 

The arbitrary and irrational vaccination guidelines were framed after receiving the letter from former PM, Dr. Mute Singh. Apparently he is not mute in Opposition and while as PM, his work did the talk rather than tongue. Lets look at what Dr. Singh said and what our Govt. did in response.

First, the government should publicize what are the firm orders for doses placed on different vaccine producers and accepted for delivery over the next six months. If we want to vaccinate a target number in this period, we should place enough orders in advance so that producers can adhere to an agreed schedule of supply.

 

To counter, Data is not the strong forte of our Govt. under Modi. Though their party is empowered with data at every booth level during elections. Govt. has given some numbers of orders placed and we know it will keep revising over the next few months to create total confusion to the already chaos created by our Govt. Guidelines and circulars for gag orders to States on Vaccine stocks have been issued in second week of June.

 

Second, the government should indicate how this expected supply will be distributed across states based on a transparent formula. The central government could retain 10 percent for distribution based on emergency needs, but other than that, states should have a clear signal of likely availability so that they can plan their roll out.

 

On empowerment of States for vaccination, Govt. of India has over extended itself. To bring transparency, Central Govt. developed a quota system and made an effort to wash their hands from vaccine procurement process. The Govt. said, “Manufacturers would transparently make an advance declaration of the price for 50 per cent supply that would be available to State Governments and in open market, before May 1”.

 

Dr Manmohan Singh is talking about distribution process and our Govt. understood it as procurement process. In addition, they have further allayed the process on private hospitals. The quota system of supplies between the Government of India and “other than Government of India” channels would be applicable “uniformly across for all vaccines manufactured in the country”.

 

Third, states should be given some flexibility to define categories of frontline workers who can be vaccinated even if they are below 45 years of age. For example, states may want to designate school teachers, bus, three-wheeler and taxi drivers, municipal and panchayat staff, and possibly lawyers who have to attend Courts as frontline workers. They can then be vaccinated even if they are below 45.

 

On this point, our Govt. agreed fully; so Govt. responded with the change. States have been given the authority to take a call to open vaccination to any category of people above the age of 18 — a shift from the current policy in which the central government decides on age-specific priority groups for vaccination.

 

Fourth, over the past few decades, India has emerged as the largest vaccine producer in the world, thanks to policies adopted by the government and robust intellectual property protection. The capacity is largely in the private sector. At this moment of a public health emergency, the Government of India must proactively support vaccine producers to expand their manufacturing facilities quickly by providing funds and other concessions. In addition, I believe this is the time to invoke the compulsory licensing provisions in the law, so that a number of companies are able to produce the vaccines under a licence. This, I recall, had happened earlier in the case of medicines to deal with the HIV/AIDS disease. As far as Covid-19 is concerned, I have read that Israel has already invoked the compulsory licensing provision and there is an overwhelming case for India to do so as well quickly.

 

On this point, Govt. has extended advance payments to vaccine manufacturers, which they had to pay in any case, but there is no support from Govt.’s end. On compulsory licensing issue, the Govt. does not want to wrong signal to the investing community and they would continue to put all their eggs in two baskets of two domestic manufacturers. Let’s see for how long they drag their feet. Govt. gave affidavit in SC that it is not tenable but the PM is asking for TRIPS waiver in G7 summit for all Covid related medicines/vaccines.

 

Fifth, since domestic supplies are limited, any vaccine that has been cleared for use by credible authorities such as the European Medical Agency or the USFDA, should be allowed to be imported without insisting on domestic bridging trials. We are facing an unprecedented emergency and, I understand, experts are of the view that this relaxation is justified in an emergency. The relaxation could be for a limited period during which the bridging trials could be completed in India. All consumers of such vaccines could be duly cautioned that these vaccines are being allowed for use based on the approval granted by the relevant authority abroad.

 

In response, the Centre has allowed imported, fully ready-to-use vaccines to be entirely utilised in the other-than-Government of India channel. This means that if and when pharma giants like Pfizer bring their vaccines to India, they can directly sell their entire supply in the open market at competitive prices.

To further complicate the India’s Vaccination Policy. Central Govt. is also working on a complex formula. We have 29 States with population size of 135 Crores of people. I really don’t understand who puts such out of the world ideas in our Govt.’s head. Or perhaps they are forced by politics.

 

In the next phase, the Centre will allocate its share of 50 per cent to states based on the extent of infection (number of active Covid cases) and vaccination performance (speed of administration). States are at present receiving vaccine doses based on demand (the number of registrations and walk-in vaccinations). “Wastage of vaccine will also be considered in this criteria and will affect the criteria negatively. Based on the above criteria, State-wise quota would be decided and communicated to the States adequately in advance,” the Centre said.

 

“India has been following a dynamic mapping model based on availability of vaccines & coverage of vulnerable priority groups to take decisions of when to open up vaccinations to other age-groups. A good amount of coverage of vulnerable groups is expected by April 30,” the Centre said.

 

Nobody knows if this policy was in discussion for a day or a week or a month. May be our Govt. was also thinking clearly on the lines of Dr. Manmohan Singh. In order to take credit, they jumbled up the whole issue, wherein our PM is yet to respond to his predecessor and MoHFW headed by Mr. Matru wrote about the politics naming the political parties in response. The reason he could not become part of the discussion process, while inventing the mumbo-jumbo, they are feeding the public amidst the pandemic, when people were dying due to lack of oxygen, hospital, medicines.

 

Central Govt. was heading for a shake down from Supreme Court and hence they changed the policy. Good sense prevailed in our Govt. to scrap the policy. Is it the impending elections in 5 States scheduled for early next year? Everybody knows, our PM’s and our Govt.’s heart and mind is always stuck in elections. They make decisions and formulate policies on how it would appear in elections.

 

Truth is stranger than fiction and an enemy of reality.

GST Rollback

Much has been said about One Nation, One Tax; which was launched with much fanfare as is the case with our marketing savvy PM on 1 July, 2017. Though GST functions through a complex structure for it was in making for more than a decade. Not to mention, the speed with which Govt. implemented GST, without proper rules, guidance or education about the system, without bringing proper awareness about how to comply with the law.

GST till date has witnessed so many modifications (read Notifications). GST for its structure and size, can be termed Constitution of Indirect Tax. Yet it has surpassed the modifications of Constitution perhaps in 70 years than in 70 months; in fact GST is yet to live half its life of 70 months.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gst-council-begins-review-of-rates-items-to-raise-revenue/articleshow/72356691.cms

We remember, Late Arun Jaitley beaming to the reporters that we are reducing GST rates on different items as the GST collection numbers have been good. Wasn’t that the reason why GST was introduced that there will be revision or confusion of rates? Now the role reversal is happening, read the above news item.

We are not talking about 180 degree turn the GST has taken for some industries. Why couldn’t Govt. take help of more experts, or perhaps taken more time to understand, how people can bypass the provisions of GST to evade taxes and built a better system to begin with. I mean, Modi had been given clean sheet to work on building a new system as against his Govt. complains that they are still cleaning the mess of 70 years of Congress. Here they got a chance to build a system from scratch and they incorporated all the blunders of Congress of 70 years as their legacy in GST network.

The Govt. official mentions, Govt. is robbed of its revenue. I means, who is robbing whom? Can a Govt. be robbed by its people, the same people who elected the Govt., gave them the power to make laws and rules for them. The word “ROBBED” by Govt. official, signifies the problem that exists in the fundamentals of GST from the time, it was put into practice or perhaps into  planning. Mind you Sir, Govt. is robbing people always, globally in every democracy and irrespective of the colour of the political party.

None of the businesses put into 18% and 28% tax slab of GST, earn as much as money for themselves as the money, they are collecting as taxes from the Govt. It applies in the case of businesses in 5% category as well. Two and a half years, petrol and diesel are still not part of the GST and I guess there is no plan. Taxes on petrol and diesel is the only reason, perhaps why we are able to clock 4.6% GDP, otherwise it may be zero. Not to mention, the State exchequers are in bigger mess and petrol/diesel taxes is the only way, a lot of States are surviving, otherwise they may file bankruptcy.

The issues for which States and Central Govt. are wrangling in GST is another matter, about which the common man is not even aware of. Refunds to exporters is known in India, a lot of exporters have closed shop due to delays from the Central Govt. to get refund on their taxes. Exporters are eligible for 100% credit of GST on proper documentation after confirmation of legitimate exports.

At the time of implementation in 2017, Malaysia had rolled back GST completely out of the system and the question arose, why is India implementing it? India as a country for its size, needs GST. I mean, for Govt.’s defence, Govt. has been quick and always up on its feet to make the changes in the GST. But the changes are so so frequent, at times changes are complete landscape shift from what was planned with the law. 180 degree rotations signifies that the Govt. is not even clear about the objective and the loop holes, which exist ensure, it can never be complied, it will never be complied; neither by people, nor by Govt. How many training sessions, Govt. has to undertake to teach their own officers.

Will rollback of GST take place? I for myself believe certainly, there are no two ways about it. When is the question? While introducing the GST and the blunderous implementation, Govt. had given the expiry date of GST. At the time of implementation, Central Govt. had declared that they will be compensating the States for their loss in revenue for first 5 years.

Now Modiji in his second term as PM has immediately extended the compensation to States from 5 to 8 years, from 2022 to 2025. 2025 is the year, when GST will be rollbacked as the States are already fed up with the delay of compensation from the Central Govt. Moreover 29 States in India, 2900 flip-flops in 29 months of GST rules and compliance. States would want to go to the system, in which they are good at milking the particular industries, the State is able to house.

The decision to push the compensation date to 2025, is to clearly avoid the 2024 election by which Mr Modi will claim his legacy of 10 years as PM as the finest PM of India, at least in his eyes and GST will still be the hallmark for 2024 elections fight. Though most likely, 2024 elections will be for paving the way for Amit Bhai Shah to become next Prime Minister. Of course, it’s a long shot, depending on the optics of 2024 and results of data set at which BJP as party masters the art to analyze such data for elections.

I wonder sometimes, had BJP as political party could gauge its decisions and the form of its implementation like they are able to gauge wind of elections and ensure that the wind blows in their direction is in itself a phenomena, we would have already been 10 steps ahead of PM’s speeches. Rollback of GST would tell us, Modiji was always putting the cart before the horse and by the end of it, much hope of building of New India will be lost.

Though it is still good 5 years before GST rollback, much drama will be played in the downturn on the back of GST. Let’s hope in the meantime, the Govt. ensures laws are made better and implemented better for the hope, that they are squandering away.

Nanhe balak chor or sirf choos (Cute kid as thief or sheer stupids)

Back in 2013, I was travelling the long route from South Delhi to ISBT by auto and then I saw four – five stalled autos in front of us at the traffic lights with AAP banner with their eponymous jhadoo symbol. I was surprised to see, new party on the block and I asked my auto driver, which is this new party and he tells me, “sahib, these banners are bought by these auto wallahs and not given by the party. The price they have paid has gone into party koshers”. I was appalled at the discovery of this new party and how poor people are contributing towards it.

Going back to election results of New Delhi 2014 elections, the election results were a true shocker for the average working class and the elite political class of India. When Kejriwal took oath, he read his own oath after the ceremonial oath about no bribery, honesty and blah-blah-blah and then he sat on a dharna as a CM against the Home Ministry and the Central Govt. True to their form as erstwhile leader of AAP Yogesh Yadav said, we are group of individuals on how to gather people or perform a dharna or make appropriate noise to be heard. We are not traditional political party, we know little about politics and we are learning fast. Kejriwal was blinded by his victory and aimed to become the PM, rising on his Delhi elections result and resigned after 49 days at the helm of Delhi State. Again a damn new thing in the Indian political history, portrayed by Kejriwal and AAP.

With eye on the Lok Sabha elections, they coined catchy slogans like all:

“Delhi mein Sheila haari hai, ab Modi ki baari hai” (Sheila lost in Delhi, it’s Modi’s turn now) 
 “Jo Kejriwal se darta hai, do-do jagah se ladhta hai” (Those who fear Kejriwal contest from two constituencies) 

“Bhrashtrachar ka ek hi kaal, Kejriwal, Kejriwal” (The scourge for corrupt people is Kejriwal)

“Baba ladhe the Goron se, Hum ladhenge choron se” (Baba fought the British, we will fight the thieves) 

“Chahe Mama ho ya bhanja, Jeeja ho ya sadhu, sab par bhari padne wali hai, aam aadmi ka jhadu” (Aam Aadmi’s jhadu will prevail over uncle-nephew, brothers-in-law)

BJP announced Delhi elections warily in 2015, although there confidence was nauseating low but somehow the inevitable had to happen, but AAP got such a majority in Delhi and it’s a record even compared to Nehru and Indira times of Congress. Delhi Assembly looks more like an internal meeting of AAP, then a State Assembly. Especially the remarks from Our aam aadmi CM makes completes the picture, like he is talking about Modi’s salary to Obama’s salary, I mean do State Heads need to talk about Assembly or do they talk about how many millions voted for them.

From the day our CM has taken charge of Office, the Central Govt. has completely hostile attitude towards him. It may be true. Ever since, the State of Delhi was brought into formation and from the first Govt till today, first Govt. belonged to BJP in 1994 and Madan Lal Khurana was the first CM. The clash of duties and responsibilities exist. During Sheila’s time, LK Advani had said that Delhi CM should have his/her word with Centre on certain issues and they reached an agreement in some context but never the changes were brought on paper. For ten years out of 15, Sheila enjoyed as Central and State Govts were Congress.

Whether it is BJP or PM, it doesn’t matter, Kejriwal is only CM for entertainment and he is digging his own grave. Getting to the current issue of CBI raid on CM’s Chief Secretary is a big question on Kejriwal. Like Kejriwal has sworn to honesty, Mr Modi has also sworn to honesty. Attacking Mr Modi in his heydays is not going to do any good to AAP, his Govt or to the people.

His officer is guilty of misappropriation or not, will come into the investigation. Moreover Kejriwal does not have to attack as the charges against the officer are subject to validation and he has gone berserk as if he has been named in the report. But Kejriwal shows his intelligence by calling PM, a coward and psychopath. I don’t know, what makes him say this, whether he becomes khaas aadmi or elevates as the best aam aadmi.

Like PM’s bitter tongue pre-election or in campaign in Bihar is not good, a nation’s capital’s CM is calling the Head of the State names is a disaster. Or attacking the FM openly, will absolve him of his stupidity. Definitely his clean record is allowing him to stay in his office but the day he slips up, he will be in deep trouble. One may not be happy with the superiors in the Office but calling on them openly is not good for the country, for themselves and for the people.

He has every right to fight with the PM and the BJP to take complete control of his State but at the same time he has to remember, he is not a protestor or a street fighter fighting for so-called social causes, he is the head of the State, head of the Govt. so his demeanor has to reflect the same. Now the aam aadmi, Kejriwal is CM and hence donned politician’s garb wherein he finds excuses for not doing his job properly just like every other politician. Rather than questioning or attacking the Central Govt., he needs to fix the issues of Delhiites rather he is busy playing political mud slinging match.

I don’t understand does he ever realize the mandate he got? Does he ever realize on what promises he is voted to power? Despite his sheer buffoonery the first time, people still supported him in droves and yet he is hugging Laloo Yadav and saying what not against the Head of the State.

The more apparent thing for him to do is stop fighting the lost battle which is not good for anybody and focus on governance. I am very certain, his green plank esp. of odd-even formula is going to bite him in the ass. It’s a strategic political battle which he is bound to lose.

The most important thing for him is to try and stop himself to be a politician and continue to connect with the people on the basis on which he is voted to power. He may continue his political struggle with the Central Govt. but in a dignified and genteel manner. But governance should be number one and number two and number three priority.

Heck, I feel like a buffoon at times, thinking that he may bring different style of functioning in Indian politics and Indian bureaucracy.