5 is just a number

P. Chidambaram was waving to the media an open palm during transfers from CBI Headquarters to Court. I thought he was saying, 5 years, the prison  time he expects to be rewarded or perhaps, he will be out of jail in 5 months. Like a good politician, he was talking about the GDP of the economy, which stands at 5%, instead of talking about the case for which he is under investigation. Criminals make for best politicians. Chidambaram is finest and stands tall with our Home Minister.

Is GDP number a big deal?? It is to the economists, it is to our PM as well. He changed the role play of numbers and figures in GDP calculation to show a strong growing economy from 2014 to 2019. But again does GDP matter, when people are happy and so hopeful that our PM will change the fortune and the future of our great nation, even though they say, his efforts in last 5 years have borne little fruit. All of us should stand with the ideas of our honest PM.

But 5% or $ 5 trillion?? $ 5 trillion is the figure, which our PM has given to the people of India as they gave him huge numbers in terms of votes in May 2019. The PM gave himself the target and support of the people, to help India become $5 trillion economy in next 5 years, before his next term. Modiji is always thinking ahead in terms of elections. And doubling it again by 2030 to $10 trillion economy.

When did we have a PM, who challenges himself in the open for the exact number on the size, never before Mr. Modi. Since the Govt. has numbers, so Govt. can push reforms and build strong policy for enabling growth in the economy, for bringing more investment in the economy. At time, I wonder, do we Indians actually deserve such a hard working PM for elections?

Fortunately or unfortunately, instead of GDP rate going up, it is going down. But understanding from where $ 5 trillion figure came, we will know where we are headed. India’s economy in terms of size is $2.7 trillion in March 2019. To get to $5 trillion, even if we grow at 8% annually every year, it will take 8 years to reach that number.

If India grows at 10%, year on year, then also, it will take around 6 years to reach the figure of 5 (trillion in dollars). No economy in the world has ever grown in double digits. China may have pulled off that spoof but then the world wonders about the integrity of their data. I guess Modiji knows, we cannot achieve $ 5 trillion in 5 years, even if whatever level of creativity is fed into statistical data.

But I believe we are heading for double digit growth in FY 2021, for the first time in the history of this country. Though the similar formula will be replicated over next years will remain a challenge. First the Govt. is working on the data, to make the base look of FY 2020 smaller, paving the way for double digit growth in FY 2021.

The PM understands there is some good news, he has to feed people so that they keep voting for him. There could be some landmarks in the mean time, like RCEP, though this failed, but there can be other initiatives from the Govt. to pull India out of its rabbit hole but it is easier said than done. Delivering GDP growth of closer to 10% as predicted by IMF numbers will be the test, on which we are already floundering to match the dismal growth rate of under 7% averaged for last five years. Mind you, this 7% is also worked out by reworking the statistical data over and over again with different permutations and combinations, which remains confidential.

The larger point comes to the fore, today in first week of November 2019, when the PM is hard selling India to Thailand to invest in India; with the assumption, India is the best place to invest in the world. Even if we achieve GDP size of $5 trillion by 2024, when the people want to protest for clean air in the national capital region of India, they cannot go out to protest in the open. Instead they are hunched at their homes and tweeting about the poor air quality; Philips is laughing its way to the bank as they are selling air purifiers in between season of coolers and heaters.

There have been floods in the city of Chennai or the latest one in Bihar, when the state capital is filled with water that people are not safe, even on first floor of their houses and the Deputy CM had to be evacuated by the Disaster Agency. Water crisis for daily needs is an issue, from which such a large population of India is grappling.

Maybe the PM believes the full effect of demonetization and GST will reap its benefits to the GDP to help us achieve $5 trillion GDP. Apparently, we are yet to hear a road map for becoming $5 trillion economy from any member of the Govt. Our dearest FM, Nirmala Tai, smokes fire when its comes to questions related to the economy. Analysts and Reporters leave the FM with the final question of how Congress is skeptical about Govt.’s words and target? She justifies her position to her party with only fire to this question. At times, I feel, FM is always irritated, is it for the Press Conferences or is that her basic nature in the Finance Ministry meetings as well; as if she hates all human beings.

Govt. did make genuine effort to reach to that point to ensure we are closer to number 5 but instead of keeping $5 trillion in sight, they hugged the 5% GDP growth rate, which is very close to half to IMF Projections of 9.8% average growth in economy for next 5 years. PM will be shouting at his campaigns with his punja (open hand display of 5), we promised 5, we delivered 5.

The poor people of India wouldn’t know, Modiji promised us $5 trillion (which would have come at 10%), instead he gave us 5%. Modiji promises and he delivers in his speeches. The honest PM, who delivers with honesty and his hard work for the elections.

All Gains No Loss for India

UN sanctions have been on China for its territorial rights on South China Sea through International Court of Justice. I mean, it is not sanctions but that is how Chinese view it and they have said that they will not comply with the order. Japan has been crying hoarse over Chinese illegal invasion (occupation but invasion seems better) with United States siding with Japan, Chinese went slow on Japan when it comes to South China Sea but they have been bullying the smaller nations like Philippines and Vietnam. 

South China Sea is an issue which has the potential to hurt badly the diplomatic and trade relations with United States of America. China is a bully, the country which can threaten United States of America and its allies must be something. China seems more like USSR of the 80s, who are going after everything which is American and yet the continue to adore and loath Americans at the same time. 

South China Sea is in China’s backyard and it uses the same to arm twist America even though America has nothing whatsoever to do with the disputed water and infringing activity and military activity of the China.

But let’s take a step back and look at the last month’s NSG talks in which India’s inclusion in the Group was under strong opposition from the China. Rather China was the only one standing in the wind to oppose the same. Is South China Sea a repercussion of the same?

China had summoned its Chief Negotiator for NSG afterwords as their diplomatic efforts fell short and China was only itself to be blamed for the blocking of India’s membership to NSG. China fired the Pakistan salvo into the midst which they knew nobody would buy and hence India entry was blocked.

If we understand the whole diplomacy and strategy of filling India into the NSG. India is emerging as a leader in the South Asian strategy of America, the reason a billion Indians and a strong and resilient economy. America has been devising a strategy to counter China. So at one end, they have developed economy with considerable say in international politics diplomacy, Japan and on the side, they want to develop India as the counter to the China along with Japan. 

Pakistan is the prickly thorn in the India’s growth and development to which India has no answer. Pakistan nuclear weapons are a threat to the world and not to India is the realization that America has come to in last few years. Nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the radicals is the biggest headache of the Americans. Donald Trump, the first priority will be to de-nuke Pakistan. Though I loathe Donald Trump but this is his single jibe which makes sense and Pakistan contains the element to destroy the Earth.

India lost its bid to NSG. NSG is the big boys club of supplying nuclear arms. India has supplied to any country, NO. But India is self reliant for its nuclear requirements and they have built and developed the critical components for operating the nuclear technology whether for energy or weapons. 

India was running on a fine piece of rope and kudos to Modi’s diplomacy that he bagged all the nations in his favor in a short time but China is a big piece of the puzzle that it is difficult for India to counter China, who is offering Pakistan unconditional support for anything. China does not want India to grow its stature.

Pakistan is like somebody you can visit when you need them but otherwise nobody wishes to invite them to home. Making Pakistan part of NSG is a fundamentally not possible. All the nuclear capability of Pakistan has been built on Chinese support of technology and finances. Pakistan is not self reliant for its nuclear requirement. It was enough on the China’s to make everybody’s ears pop out of the system. 

China feels or thinks giving only India membership would break the counterbalance of the Indian subcontinent. But in the wake of the same, the international agencies and USA have already upped the pressure on the China by passing the order on the South China Sea.

Obama Administration has not been working for India as hard as the Bush Administration. Don’t forget Obama administration has been building India’s case since 2010 and yet in 2016, it fell flat on US face. Remember BJP fought tooth and nail with the Congress for signing the Nuclear Agreement with USA back in 2006. But in 2008, Manmohan Singh Govt. had a breakthrough when he put his foot on his alliance partner, Left parties who threatened to break the Govt. which BJP saw an opportunity to make a Govt. at the Centre as well. With Bush administration efforts and for one time, when Manmohan Singh threw his weight around as a Prime Minister is etched in the nuclear history of the country. 

This time around, Modi did fire his salvo at the international nations with caution and won their support but he is not the Statesman to have given credit to Manmohan Singh for the giant leap that India decided to take by participating for the race of NSG membership.

Pakistan had also applied in late May 2016 in Vienna for NSG membership. China claimed if you are giving India concessions to win membership, you can offer the same to Pakistan. But by backing Pakistan and stacking Pakistan against India at such high level of diplomacy in the international arena, China has stepped on a mine from which he cannot push its foot off and unless and until they may make Pakistan sit on the same. 

Come what may, India may have lost its chance to NSG membership this time. It still is a winner proposition for the India. It will help in developing a better and more profound relationship with the global superpower America who already devours China and is looking for chances to undermine the Chinese status in the international diplomatic missions and as a rising global superpower. Key takeaway, Western World now thinks India is not fault for strained relations with Pakistan, rather it is Pakistan's own making.

Twenty Ten

Finally 2009 is over. I am not late or just woken up. Didn’t get time to publish it. It is always an exciting time of the year around Christmas. Everybody is looking at the year gone-by, the parties, the fun, the colours and the frolic. Though I miss the wintry chill of North, where I have spent 24 years of my life, wrapping yourself under layers of clothes, moving around with a blanket, holding hot cup of chai in hands to warm your body, the real taste of whiskey is felt in cold weather and the bon-fires.

I really don’t know or understood why people celebrate New Year. For the year goneby, the events, the moments, a flashback is so different from the normal routine. 2009 ending was special as we were waving goodbye to a decade. To a tumultuous decade. The decade evoAked to the fall of WTC in New York. The ultimate terrorist attack ever accomplished on a superpower. Suddenly the West realized how big the problem is and what poor nations and ill-equipped nation like our’s is undergoing. 9/11. 26/11, 7/11, 11 was symbolized for terror. Bali blasts, Madrid bombings, Tube blasts, Taj coup, so many dead and yet the fight for jihad is on. Osama Bin Laden seems like a case which will always be in progress. Al-Jazeera was one of the most sought after channels in the world. Afghanistan and Iraq fell, Pakistan will fall in the coming decade. Just pray India does not follow them. Coz when your neighbours are shouting, even you find it difficult to sleep. The talk of bombs and bombers was the supreme activity of this decade before Mr. Fuld took over.

The ending of 2009 was definitely an event to be celebrated. 2009 was one of the most painful years in past few decades. The pain inflicted by events of 2008 gave its conclusive results in 2009. 11’s were forgotten. Suddenly the World opened to a new phenomenon which nobody would have imagined in their wildest dreams. All the money that the Central Govt’s had printed was eaten away by rats. Americans would have been happy and restored peace by firing missiles on rats. But unfortunately those rats were American, so out of sympathy, they fed those rats with some more green paper and the diseased population spread to the world. It was only for few people like Indians and Chinese, who didn’t entertain those rats or fried those rats on their hotplates, respectively.

The World order changed in this decade. The people from BRICs, BASIC, Chindia, Emerging markets/nations were rubbing shoulders with the first world and would try and look straight in the eye, if not scare them. Hope something better comes out of it in the coming deacde. Otherwise, the process and the idea has changed globally. Orator Obama, sexy Sarkozy, dumb Brown, Madam Chancellor, everybody has changed and with them their outlook towards the world. India found water in space, for which NASA had spent billions of dollars.

This decade was extremely special for India. India was able to display to the World that we are capable and hopefully may come up with bigger surprises in the coming decade. We got one of the most intelligent and honest person in the country as our PM. Every politician falls short on his/her promises, but the good thing to notice is how many promises they were able to keep and what efforts they put in for those promises.

In technology space, laptops became cheaper than a typewriter, kids learn to operate mobile phone before they start speaking. So in the coming decade, you can expect some credit card sized gadget to be better equipped than your laptop, you blink about a message to be sent to your loved one, it will be their on his screen. Don’t look me as I’m fool, such things are happening and will happen, when companies are spending billions on cloud computing, Google is bidding for telecom spectrum to offer free internet services and guys like Pranav Mistry have built a cell phone sized super computer (that’s how I’d say it).

In entertainmwnt world, Playboy is up for sale. I don’t understand why Mr. Mallya didn’t bid for it. Everything came out of closet, when we have reality TV and people like Rakhi Sawant, who can make money and career out of bull shit. In the coming decade, expect the few sheets remaining on the bedside to be dumped. The whole flavor of naturalness will get more evolved. Already international celebs are posing in the name of vegans and greens. India is also in the race with them for everything so leave the glamour potion.

Cheers to 2010…………..!!!!!