Abrogation of Article 370

Principally and fundamentally, I believe that India as a nation, needed a new or fresh perspective. One which is world away from Congress thinking or perhaps the party, which is entrapped within the thinking and decisions of Pandit Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The India of today, needs decisions, which are independent from the philosophy of India as it was 70 or even 40 years ago. The current age of digital revolution should be aligned with the modern economies and not to look back at the history for decisions of tomorrow.

PM Modi has a varied different perspective on everything, which is like 180 degree from the Congress thought process. He does not mince words for his actions prove he is the loudest in the class; in which everybody starts murmuring, so that their voices drown out. He is a man in hurry, he is possessed man with mission, to make the better of India.

Article 370 had to be scrapped for the betterment of India, it has been impending since last 25 years. Perhaps Congress should have done it in 1990s, when the valley was on boil, how does it matter who gets roasted in the boil of the broth. Armed with 350 seats in Lok Sabha and almost there in terms of majority in Rajya Sabha, perhaps it was time to put the matter to discussion (I know it is no word in new India) and bring all the concerned parties to tame the line, the way we know PM Modi, makes everybody fall in line, irrespective of the pain.

People or decision makers are said to cringe at his choices, but then I believe PM Modi must be saying to them; Pain is inevitable, suffering is always optional. Let’s not suffer for the betterment and deal with the pain. But the speed with which PM Modi unleashes reforms as if he fears the world or he does not wish to give the time for voice to the detractors.

Bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir and declaration of Kashmir and Ladakh as Union Territories in a single day without following the procedures laid down in the Constitution or masquerading the process in the name of United India, is something way too radical for people to accept. In a functional democracy, the letter of law should be followed and all parties concerned should be consulted and made to understand the point of view. Or the PM himself does not believe in democratic process. The legal process to be followed or bypassed for enforcing the decision is for the legal pundits to ponder. But if PM does not believe in procedures, how does he think people will follow his disfigured procedures.

There are so many Indians, who are lauding PM Modi on Twitter, WhatsApp for his decision but then the people who will be heart of this decision are locked up in their houses, with no medium to voice or express their happiness. If bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir is so amazing as an idea to be implemented, I am pretty sure, the PM would have found a way to show people of Jammu & Kashmir, its the benefits, people who are the centre of it. I believe in PM Modi’s conviction.

PM knows the best as most Indians believe, why are people of Jammu & Kashmir not allowed to celebrate on the streets or hell at least, they should be allowed to celebrate on social media at least. Home Minister gave a long speech, how it benefits only the people of Jammu & Kashmir in his address in the Parliament. I am sure they would have or could have sent that message to every resident of Jammu & Kashmir beforehand.

History is witness in every corner in the world, an Army can never resolve the conflict. Kejriwal is fighting for the right of full Statehood of Delhi but then he is jostling with the Central Govt. over discretionary power on Delhi Police and there is no or zero involvement of Army from either side (State Govt. has no power on Army). But Central Govt. is not resorting to deployment of Army to keep Kejriwal’s voice down. Good or bad, right or wrong; Central Govt. is using the tools to control Kejriwal, which are allowed in a functional democracy.

Abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of the State and declaration of the State as Union Territory are three different topics. Article 370 is the smoke that the Govt. is using to leverage the agenda of bifurcation and Union Territory to ensure that there will never be peace in Jammu & Kashmir.

Are we witnessing the blunders of Demonetization and GST to be repeated in Jammu & Kashmir with bifurcation and Union Territory order? Where the Govt. is rail roading the idea, which is stuck in their head like a broken tune but then they don’t know what will be repercussions of implementing idea, which is poorly planned and besieged on the people. For we have to witness the bold chest of 56 inches, which can make tough decisions by convoluting the Constitution but then it will be implemented in a manner to ensure it’s a dud from the word GO.

Locking down the Kashmir with thousands of army troops patrolling every street, where a soul cannot be found is the only way for Govt. to implement their idea of bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir to make people of the State inclusive to India and bring peace in the valley.

After all, PM has been selling the idea to the world that terrorism is the biggest threat to the development of India and the nations for its like, who are victims of terror attacks. I agree with PM Modi, terror attack is myopic view. Only cowards take actions under the garb of terror attacks from which they can never achieve anything, it is only to create fear in the mind of people, besides which it cannot achieve anything further.

Home Ministry had issued an Advisory of a possible terror attack. To ensure the safety of the people of the State, 30,000 or 60,000 (or whatever number) troops were deployed in the State and Section 144 imposed on people with total communication shutdown to ensure the safety of the people.

But then the Ministry failed to assess, it’s for Home Minister’s protection for his decision is going to burn down the valley. There is only one way to ironclad the tough decision of the Govt. of State bifurcation and Union Territory declaration is by locking people up in their houses. No country has ever built jails so big to confine its entire population.

Will it be war within or the battles outside as we are used to playing hokey-pokey with Pakistan, can only be known, when the communication system in Jammu & Kashmir is restored? I believe the Govt. will not allow people to come to street without knowing their mind. Article 370 can be digested even if it is pushed down the throat but the larger agenda is the bifurcation of State and making the state, a Union Territory.

The bigger question remains, whether the same procedure will be followed in other States, where the BJP is not able to wrest the power by electoral process. But first, we need to know the temperature in the valley, especially when we are about to enter fall season.

KKR Credit Quality

http://www.forbesindia.com/article/work-in-progress/kkrs-dice-with-debt/55421/1

The above article is a must read and very enlightening to understand the crisis of credit that is plaguing the Indian economy. the more pertinent question to be understood here; should we be blaming our public sector banks for the mess they are in due to bad loan crisis. When the internationally managed PE fund is bungling its small book of portfolio of India in which there are barely 30 accounts. or is it the other way around, that if KKR is willing to lend to AA rated accounts at 15%, it is understandable that the account is about to default on all its limits and loans.

While the most worrying element is the frauds, which are widely prevalent in Indian corporate sector and which are apparently visible on the face of it. It leads to serious introspection of the fact that what and how KKR (it applies to all types of lenders) is undertaking due diligence of the financial and legal, that they completely ignore the red flags; which are all pervasive and compulsive on some of its business accounts. If KKR cannot avoid fraud, after paying tens of millions of rupees for due-dilligence to some of the finest Chartered Accountants and lawyers in the country, what is it that the lenders are looking in the corporate to fund. KKR is only used as an example as they are known as the baddest sharks in the water, when it comes to scouring deals in the market.

On the other end of the spectrum, we are only taking the case of Kwality Ltd. and CG Power and Industrial Solutions Ltd. Kwality Ltd. generated turnover of Rs. 6724 Crores for FY18 with Net Profit of Rs. 71 Crores and it had grown from Rs. 5269 Crores with Net Profit of Rs. 140 Crores. Kwality Ltd. manufactures or processes, milk, dahi, chaach, cream and ready to drink milk products.

I don’t know or wish to discuss, what is the level of financial due-diligence that had undergone the Kwality Ltd. account by KKR but lets not get subjective about the process. But before conducting the financial due-diligence, perhaps they could have done market due-diligence to understand at how many outlets and through how many distributors, Kwality Ltd. is selling its milk products. If Kwality Ltd. is only selling milk in the market with turnover of Rs. 6700 Crores, it was moving 134 Crores litres of milk (taking milk price at Rs. 50 per litre) in the financial year. A commodity which is perishable with shelf life of less than 24 hours. The logistics required to move such huge amount of quantity of milk everyday, which is typically done in the morning or the evening. The processing required for the same to bring consistency with turnaround time of less than 6 hours. I certainly doubt the processing capability in terms of production.

Even if any accountant had tried to talk to Kwality Ltd. competitors in the market, they would have understood the capability of Kwality Ltd. in terms of procuring, processing and selling milk. i had never seen Kwality Ltd. milk sold in the markets. two or three years back, after KKR gave them money, the only thing they sold in the market was Akshay Kumar hoardings with unique packaging. But nobody knows on which shops, those glitzy packets were sold. It was far and wide marketing reach program of Akshay Kumar posing with Kwailty Ltd. milk and packaged products with no products on the shelves.

Kwality Ltd. has debtors of more than 3 months amounting to Rs. 1700 Crores in FY18. which milk processing company can afford debtors of 3 months. Milk is sold on cash by the companies to the shopkeepers or chains. They may compromise on margins but no credit. For frozen products, I can understand they have to extend credit but milk related products help rein in profits and not the turnover. Milk generally contributes to the turnover of milk processing companies and milk related processed foods help bring in better profitability.

Kwality Ltd. is a cat and mouse game in which KKR also got whipped. But what I don’t understand for the amount of resources they put in underwriting a transaction; they didn’t verify the marketing composition of the Company. Now Kwality Ltd. proudly puts the top link to CIRP (Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process) on its website. Kwality Ltd. market capital is Rs. 37 Crores with price ranging from Rs. 1 - 2 from their life high of close to Rs. 4000 Crores, two years back.

Can lenders avoid such companies, who have no products to sell in the market? Certainly if they do detailed marketing survey of how, why, where the companies products are sold. Kwality Ltd. was perhaps not even processing the fraction of what their numbers claim.

CG Power and Industrial Solutions Ltd. is another case study to understand. CG Power manufactures transformers, which are so essential for the power distribution in India, a power hungry country, with our energy needs still not largely met. CG Power is the only Indian company with that capability. They compete with international companies like Alstom and its likes, whose products cost at least 2x the CG’s equivalent products.

CG Power is the fundamental piece in the power distribution infrastructure of India. Now the company is under investigation for fraud allegations. With the fundamentals intact, it may not be the case of NCLT for IBC. But KKR was generous in writing cheques to CG Power.

CG Power fundamentally does not have larger problems that are ailing companies like Kwality Ltd. CG Power is part of Thapar Group, whose Group had investments exceeding Rs. 25000 Crores or Rs. 50000 Crores. But then all its other operating and cash generating companies are closing, shutting down and not to mention have defaulted on their loans.

CG Power was only plagued by the fact that it was the part of the group in which it only remained the performing from half a dozen large assets owned by the group. CG Power is a failure of legal due-diligence to understand, how and why the money was lent to CG Power and Thapar Group and how loosely bankers had tied CG Power in the fine print for some of the other assets of the group. CG Power possessed the joint and several liability of the group, if yes, then perhaps its management should have been changed as soon as the other assets were closed or shutting down.

I am pretty sure, KKR lawyers would have sought detailed clarifications from the existing bankers of the CG Power about their security and the charge they carried on CG Power, resulting from giving money to CG Power or Thapar Group. With the structured transaction that KKR undertakes, they must have taken proper clarification from the Banks. How CG Power international web of operations was spread across the globe, they were in best position to understand the structure of the CG Power (Indian and Global) business better than any Indian banker as they don’t understand the complicated route via which international banks offer products and solutions to corporates like CG Power.

Now we can always blame the market or the various cycles, which operate the market. But the fact remains, it is a systematic failure of the accountants and lawyers, which owe the primary responsibility of helping the banker/lender understand the company and its operations. They can always meet the promoters and the management for informal chats on how they are gaming the system, with which they have built their castle in the air, which can so easily be wiped in a single storm.

Good sound companies are built with the cushion to survive the storms (like CG Power), of course, in bad market conditions, everybody possess the likelihood of going under the weather like currently even our economy is. But CG Power is a casualty of the bungling’s in the group, so that had to be studied properly for all the surprises we are yet to hear.

Moreover never ever lend to a promoter, who does not value his own shares. A lot of promoters treat their own shares as an expensive paper but if they themselves do not respect their paper; perhaps we should be avoiding them at all costs. They do not deserve a single penny of the bankers/lenders or certainly the public.

For lenders, it is the good case of incompetence at how they fail to understand the businesses in which they are taking exposure. Kwality Ltd. Is the classic case, which exposes us to all the perils that lender should understand in order to avoid tripping on to the landmine, where they visualize gold.

World Cup Format

World Cup 2019 in England, only the rain is the most consistent performer. Out of 24 matches played in the tournament, four have already gone without any play and in equal number, density of clouds keep travelling over and above the stadium, which means broken mojo of the teams on the field. 

Everybody went back the memory lane, of how Pakistan (the underdogs) qualified in 1992 for the semi-finals by virtue of rain. Pakistan only had three games to be played in the Group Stage and two were washed out due to rain. Pakistan’s, underdog team, qualified for the semi finals and ultimately went on to win the World Cup in 1992. South Africa was strong contender for 1992, but lost out to D/L method in knockout stage.

In a strange sense of events in 1996 World Cup, South African team was again the favourites for the World Cup. South Africa thrashed out the teams, they played in Group stage. In Quarter Finals, South Africa was going strong and the worst West Indies, West Indies as team has gone to its worst today, compared to their heydays of winning first three editions of World Cup, 1996 team was the worst till the time; and then in a strange chain of events, West Indies took three wickets in one over, only to end South Africa’s dream run, without giving them a chance to play Semi-Finals. But it was still Quarter Final. 

South Africa as country had joined international cricket after decades of hiatus in 1991, due to apartheid. Post which, ICC has been working around the world to ensure more and more countries start playing cricket and trying to bring more countries in the main stream. Cricket is the least adopted sports in the world in terms of number of nations. Of course, we can compare some of the snow related sports, due to weather and mountains.

ICC tried to increase teams for the World Cup, and in one such edition, they brought 14 teams. And the realization dawned that bottom six teams, do not even deserve to be in World Cup. World Cup as the tournament, which comes every 4 years should only be played by the best teams. We are also living in an era of T20 cricket with the immensely popular IPL edition; when players like Gayle are becoming specialists in the format.

IPL (Indian Premier League) has 8 teams and all teams play with each other, twice in the tournament, which ensures, only the most consistent teams in performance get the chance to reach the Qualifier (more like semi-finals) rounds. 

For the first time in World Cup, every team is playing all the other teams in the tournament with 10 countries playing World Cup 2019, to ensure there are no stroke of luck editions like Pakistan in 1992. It was not about the best, it was only about getting lucky on that day, when fortunately you get to play a match.

In World Cup, 2019, rain can wash up 3 matches for every team, still every team has at least 6 matches to be played and perform, which requires consistency and persistence to qualify for the Semi-Final stage. Six matches to be played by every team in World Cup has never happened before. 

The four teams which qualify for semi-final, now need luck only for two matches on two days, definitely the consistent ones, who carry performance throughout the 9 matches (or 6 matches, due to rain), would rely more on performance and less on luck. Four teams at the top will be crème de la crème.

Now after 39 out of 45 matches, we are still not clear which teams qualify for the semi-finals, except for Australia making the cut. Rain didn’t play the spoilsport post the 4 – 5 matches in the initial phase. 

Which World Cup format is better or has more merits to gauge the reflexes that which team is more consistent in its performance, which can perform over longer duration against everybody to be truly anointed the Champion of the World Cup. 

My bets are all hedged on Cricket World Cup 2019 - #CWC2019.

Twenty Ten

Finally 2009 is over. I am not late or just woken up. Didn’t get time to publish it. It is always an exciting time of the year around Christmas. Everybody is looking at the year gone-by, the parties, the fun, the colours and the frolic. Though I miss the wintry chill of North, where I have spent 24 years of my life, wrapping yourself under layers of clothes, moving around with a blanket, holding hot cup of chai in hands to warm your body, the real taste of whiskey is felt in cold weather and the bon-fires.

I really don’t know or understood why people celebrate New Year. For the year goneby, the events, the moments, a flashback is so different from the normal routine. 2009 ending was special as we were waving goodbye to a decade. To a tumultuous decade. The decade evoked to the fall of WTC in New York. The ultimate terrorist attack ever accomplished on a superpower. Suddenly the West realized how big the problem is and what poor nations and ill-equipped nation like our’s is undergoing. 9/11. 26/11, 7/11, 11 was symbolized for terror. Bali blasts, Madrid bombings, Tube blasts, Taj coup, so many dead and yet the fight for jihad is on. Osama Bin Laden seems like a case which will always be in progress. Al-Jazeera was one of the most sought after channels in the world. Afghanistan and Iraq fell, Pakistan will fall in the coming decade. Just pray India does not follow them. Coz when your neighbours are shouting, even you find it difficult to sleep. The talk of bombs and bombers was the supreme activity of this decade before Mr. Fuld took over.

The ending of 2009 was definitely an event to be celebrated. 2009 was one of the most painful years in past few decades. The pain inflicted by events of 2008 gave its conclusive results in 2009. 11’s were forgotten. Suddenly the World opened to a new phenomenon which nobody would have imagined in their wildest dreams. All the money that the Central Govt’s had printed was eaten away by rats. Americans would have been happy and restored peace by firing missiles on rats. But unfortunately those rats were American, so out of sympathy, they fed those rats with some more green paper and the diseased population spread to the world. It was only for few people like Indians and Chinese, who didn’t entertain those rats or fried those rats on their hotplates, respectively.

The World order changed in this decade. The people from BRICs, BASIC, Chindia, Emerging markets/nations were rubbing shoulders with the first world and would try and look straight in the eye, if not scare them. Hope something better comes out of it in the coming deacde. Otherwise, the process and the idea has changed globally. Orator Obama, sexy Sarkozy, dumb Brown, Madam Chancellor, everybody has changed and with them their outlook towards the world. India found water in space, for which NASA had spent billions of dollars.

This decade was extremely special for India. India was able to display to the World that we are capable and hopefully may come up with bigger surprises in the coming decade. We got one of the most intelligent and honest person in the country as our PM. Every politician falls short on his/her promises, but the good thing to notice is how many promises they were able to keep and what efforts they put in for those promises.

In technology space, laptops became cheaper than a typewriter, kids learn to operate mobile phone before they start speaking. So in the coming decade, you can expect some credit card sized gadget to be better equipped than your laptop, you blink about a message to be sent to your loved one, it will be their on his screen. Don’t look me as I’m fool, such things are happening and will happen, when companies are spending billions on cloud computing, Google is bidding for telecom spectrum to offer free internet services and guys like Pranav Mistry have built a cell phone sized super computer (that’s how I’d say it).

In entertainment world, Playboy is up for sale. I don’t understand why Mr. Mallya didn’t bid for it. Everything came out of closet, when we have reality TV and people like Rakhi Sawant, who can make money and career out of bull shit. In the coming decade, expect the few sheets remaining on the bedside to be dumped. The whole flavor of naturalness will get more evolved. Already international celebs are posing in the name of vegans and greens. India is also in the race with them for everything so leave the glamour potion.

Cheers to 2010…………..!!!!!

Death of Salwar

MissMalini.com is the ultimate fashion extravaganza of what is happening latest in the fashion industry and where the future trend of fashion will be blown by our Bollywood Actresses. After all, Bollywood brings all the fashion capital to the nation. With the personal stylists hired and working full time, even for budding actresses can show the trend. I mean if Kareena Kapoor Khan (Dont know why she left Ali and Pataudi and only took Khan from Saif’s name) steps out in a simple Tee without makeup, that also has to be designer Tee. Something which was never worn by anybody, must carry some symbol or emblem, cut or fabric, not visible on the Indian social scene. Now KKK (aka Bebo) is sporting designer wear with her baby hump or another trend has started in the market. 

Back in early 2000s, when the satellite television were starting operations by every day and 24 hours news was just catching the people’s infancy, there was a discussion on a news channel and a question was asked by a viewer to Aditi Govitrikar, Do you wear the clothes in normal that you showcase on ramp? Today that day is here, when the actresses and even the normal neighborhood girls are wearing the ensembles (not clothes) showcased in the fashion shows. I mean there are ensembles and silhouettes way over the top, which may never find their place in market, but then a fashion designer is showcasing his talent to think differently and act differently and the more important is the details of the cut of the dress, the fabric and how it has been draped, the reason Fashion Shows exist.

Two years back, we were skimming through my cousin’s shopping for wedding. Of course, western dresses (majorly jeans and tops) were part of the package along with the traditional dresses, whether you wear them or not, but somehow it is felt that traditional dresses make you look sanskari (cultured) in the eyes of in-laws. Kurtis and suits with various styles were there but the sheer absence of salwar is something I questioned. Not that bottom wear is gone. But the traditional salwar is replaced by the pants, leggings, churidars, harem pants, palazzos and skirts. There were so many options besides the salwar. I questioned the absence of salwar from her ensemble, she replied, I have never worn in it in my life. 

This year another cousin is getting married, I was involved neck deep for helping her in shopping. She has also never worn salwar in her life. She wears Indian suits on almost daily basis. It was not that she had absolutely rejected the idea of salwar but none were found in the market. To get it stitched, her tailor also denied that I have new boys working and they have never stitched a salwar. Invariably palazzos or something other was provided readymade with the kameez (top), which is stitched to every girl/women own measurements. 

Dupatta still exists over the larger Indian audience and with majority of the dresses, it is provided, whether girls choose to wear it or not, is individual’s choice. But dupatta is also used as an accessory or some other way rather than hanged front to back but it is sliding on one side or role as a kafiyah or at times, girls do role around their heads. 

Public transport is a huge learning curve. Somehow I am forcibly contributing to the planet by not owning a car but Metro traveling in Delhi is fun with their powerful Air-Conditioner and the amazing time one has while watching people and the variety of people we get to see everyday. Ladies Coach is a truly boone for women commuters. But it has come at huge cost of people like me who appreciate Indian beauty. But then there are few girls/women who enter other coaches with their male friends or for the lure of a ladies seat. I witnessed one can find may be one in a hundred girl in salwar. Of course, aunties wear it, but when the aunties are decked up a little, they ditch their salwar and shift to pajami or palazzos or sharara (skirt).

All the girls born in late 80’s and post that period have worn salwar never or few occasions in their life. Older generation belonging to aunts post 45 are also shifting to other versions for their bottom wear than salwar. At times I wonder what are the rightists or the nationalists have to say about it. Although they sport knicker but still for the girls to shift at large to a knicker or a short skirt is like a decade away. Is there going to be a dharna (protest) for the death of salwar.

30 years back, it was the death of sari at a mass level especially North India wherein it became a formal wear dress and for normal wear, majority of the women have ditched it. 2010 is the year when it be called the year, Salwar died. But then with the new century and new generation, more variations and options of Western dresses are available to the girls. 

With the death of salwar, lehnga-choli has given small space of Indian version (lehnga material) to gowns, kaftans from Arabic world, tunics without bottom (earlier mothers forced their girls to wear bottom with tunics). With the death of salwar, a more bold and fierce version of women are easily sporting navel but wearing crop tops and pants hanging at the waist.

Old world makes way for the new. Bollywood Stars children are ahead of their parents with their instagram photos featuring their cleavages before they are developed or bikini bodies under development. In fact, ditching the salwar has brought the girls out of the closet, Tinder tells us how, with girls/women sporting bikini for their profile pictures and taking pictures as if they wish to enter contests on the CHIVE. 

Salwar is not dying, it is dead. It is demise is not sad but exciting with offering women more freedom in terms of expressing their body and their identity to the world. On a personal note, the more revealing dresses or tighter dresses women wear, the more empowered they feel. But then India, media makes an issue out of Deepika’s boobs or cleavage, she gets paid for revealing her body. I don't know, how society will come to terms with it or I guess they will, like the salwar died slow death without a ceremony.